Base case analysis

A base case analysis usually refers to the results of an economic model using the most likely or preferred set of assumptions and input values. It establishes a baseline for comparison against which sensitivity and scenario analyses can be employed to explore how the results deviate when input values or modelling assumptions are altered. The term ‘reference case’ (analysis) may be used as an alternative to base case analysis, particularly when health technology assessment organisations, such as NICE, provide a standard set of modelling assumptions.